The hot-blooded 2020 hurricane season is less than a month in its grave, but there\u2019s already a prediction that 2021 will conjure\u00a0another year of tropical excess.<\/p>\n
Colorado State University, which has issued seasonal hurricane forecasts for 38 years, said global climate patterns and atmospheric humors are leaning toward a 65 percent chance of an above-normal 2021 season.<\/p>\n
Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the annual qualitative discussion on the hurricane season that begins June 1, acknowledges that predictions six months in advance are dubious, but that large-scale events can offer some insight.<\/p>\n
The\u00a0beefy La Ni\u00f1a that appeared in September\u00a0is expected to last at least through March, and rarely does a moderate-to-strong La Ni\u00f1a flip quickly to an El Ni\u00f1o with enough influence to squelch a hurricane season.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat loads the dice toward active,\u201d Klotzbach said. \u201cThe business of seasonal forecasting is all based on odds.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ten years with\u00a0moderate-to-strong La Ni\u00f1a climate patterns in the fall were reviewed by CSU. Just one went\u00a0to El Ni\u00f1o the next year during the peak hurricane season months of August, September and October.<\/p>\n
“And it\u00a0barely met the threshold of El Ni\u00f1o,” Klotzbach said.<\/p>\n
During El Ni\u00f1o, water across the eastern Pacific Ocean warms, shifting rainfall and storm patterns that reduce wind shear in the Pacific and increase it in the Atlantic. Westerly wind shear in the Atlantic works to tear apart hurricanes as they develop.<\/p>\n
With La Ni\u00f1a, waters in the Pacific cool, rainfall retreats to the west, and the wind shear in the Atlantic wanes \u2014 leaving the Atlantic and U.S. vulnerable to tropical cyclones.<\/p>\n
La Ni\u00f1a can also mean a drier and warmer winter for Florida as cold air is\u00a0trapped above a jet stream that lingers longer at higher latitudes.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a are part of the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. A neutral phase of\u00a0ENSO means other factors, such as sea-surface temperatures, can play a bigger role during hurricane season.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey\u2019re just looking at two to three big-picture factors, but there is a notorious spring predictability barrier, which makes forecasting the phase of ENSO very challenging in December,\u201d said University of Miami senior researcher Brian McNoldy about CSU\u2019s forecast.<\/p>\n
The astronomical calendar just hit winter Monday, so there’s inherent uncertainty trying to read an atmosphere so far from the spring-to-summer transition.<\/p>\n
In 2017, April forecasts from AccuWeather and CSU called for a below-normal hurricane season based on the prediction of an El Ni\u00f1o, but it never arrived. Instead, the season ended with 17 named storms, including Category 4 systems Harvey, Irma and Maria, which hit the continental U.S. and\u00a0Puerto Rico.<\/p>\n
In 2019, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters said they believed El Ni\u00f1o would grow to moderate strength and live through August, September and October \u2014 peak hurricane months. But it abruptly died in August, and the 2019 hurricane season ended with 18 named storms.<\/p>\n
Last year, CSU\u2019s December forecast gave just a 15 percent chance for a hyper-active season. It said there was a 45 percent chance for an above-normal season.<\/p>\n
By the time the tropics sputtered to a stop on\u00a0Nov. 18,\u00a0the season\u00a0had tallied an unprecedented 30 named storms, including 13 hurricanes. Twelve storms made U.S. landfall.<\/p>\n
While the final number of named storms was about double what CSU called for in its April forecast \u2014 the December forecast doesn\u2019t include exact storm numbers \u2014 the August prediction was just six storms shy of reality.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs always, there\u2019s nothing a coastal resident can or should do with these seasonal outlooks,\u201d said James Franklin, a former chief of forecast operations at the National Hurricane Center. \u201cAside from being frequently wrong about the upcoming overall activity, they offer no practical information about what sections of coastline are at particular risk.\u201d<\/p>\n
Five storms made landfall this year in Louisiana, while\u00a0Florida\u00a0escaped widespread damage.<\/p>\n
Tropical Storm Eta was the only system\u00a0to make a Florida landfall when it hit Lower Metecumbe Key on Nov. 8. Hurricane Sally sent storm surge flooding into Pensacola in September, but it technically made landfall in Gulf Shores, Ala.<\/p>\n
The location of storm formation this year and a persistent area of high pressure helped protect Florida, but there\u2019s no guarantee the Sunshine State will escape unscathed in 2021.<\/p>\n
Florida went 11 years without a direct hurricane strike between Charley in 2005 and Hurricane Hermine in 2016. Then came 2017\u2019s Irma and 2018\u2019s Cat 5 Michael. In 2019, Category 5 Dorian came close to South Florida\u00a0but stalled over the Northern Bahamas before making a sharp turn north.<\/p>\n
\u201cFlorida had a good string of luck, but like we saw with the U.S. this year, that string of luck can run out,\u201d Klotzbach said, referring to the 12 landfalls. \u201cWe put out these December forecasts, and people like to speculate, but there\u2019s so much that can change.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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