{"id":51028,"date":"2021-06-15T13:05:52","date_gmt":"2021-06-15T17:05:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.carilec.org\/?p=51028"},"modified":"2021-06-15T13:08:42","modified_gmt":"2021-06-15T17:08:42","slug":"noaa-predicts-another-active-atlantic-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/noaa-predicts-another-active-atlantic-hurricane-season\/","title":{"rendered":"NOAA Predicts Another Active Atlantic Hurricane Season"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"field field--name-field-publication-date field--type-datetime field--label-hidden\">\n<div class=\"field__item\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em><strong><time datetime=\"2021-05-20T12:00:00Z\">May 20, 2021<\/time><\/strong><\/em> &#8211; NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. However, experts do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For 2021, a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher) is expected. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. The Atlantic hurricane season extends from June 1 through November 30.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cNow is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring,\u201d said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. \u201cThe experts at NOAA are poised to deliver life-saving early warnings and forecasts to communities, which will also help minimize the economic impacts of storms.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"field field--name-field-body field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-hidden\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div class=\"field__items\">\n<div class=\"field__item\">\n<section class=\"l-section paragraph paragraph--type-rich-text paragraph--display-mode-default paragraph--width-body-indent-none MIN XXS XS SM MD\" data-observe-resizes=\"\" data-observing=\"true\">\n<div class=\"l-section__content\">\n<div class=\"field field--name-field-body-formatted-long field--type-text-long field--label-hidden\">\n<div class=\"field__item\">\n<figure role=\"group\">\n<article>\n<div class=\"field field--name-field-media-image field--type-image field--label-hidden\">\n<div class=\"field__item\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" title=\"A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA's 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. (NOAA)\" src=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/2021-05\/GRAPHIC-2021-Hurricane-Outlook-piechart-052021-5333x3317-highres.png\" alt=\"A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA's 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.\" width=\"528\" height=\"326\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article><figcaption><span class=\"caption-text\">A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA&#8217;s 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"credit\">(NOAA)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Last month,\u00a0NOAA updated the statistics\u00a0used to determine when hurricane seasons are above-, near-, or below-average relative to the latest climate record. Based on this update an average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which 7 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.<\/p>\n<p>El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently in the neutral phase, with the possibility of the return of La Nina later in the hurricane season. \u201cENSO-neutral and La Nina support the conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era,\u201d said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at\u00a0NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center. \u201cPredicted warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon will likely be factors in this year\u2019s overall activity.\u201d\u00a0Scientists at NOAA also continue to study how climate change is impacting\u00a0the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAlthough NOAA scientists don\u2019t expect this season to be as busy as last year, it only takes one storm to devastate a community,\u201d said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator. \u201cThe forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are well-prepared with significant upgrades to our computer models, emerging observation techniques, and the expertise to deliver the life-saving forecasts that we all depend on during this, and every, hurricane season.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In an effort to continuously enhance hurricane forecasting, NOAA made several updates to products and services that will improve hurricane forecasting during the 2021 season.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In March,\u00a0NOAA upgraded the flagship Global Forecast System\u00a0(GFS) to improve hurricane genesis forecasting and coupled GFS with a wave model extending ocean wave forecasts from 10 days out to 16 days. Additionally,\u00a0Global Positioning Satellite Radio Occultation (GPS-RO) data\u00a0are now included in the GFS model, providing an additional source of observations to strengthen overall model performance.<\/li>\n<li>Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are now using an upgraded probabilistic storm surge model \u2014 known as\u00a0P-Surge\u00a0\u2014 which includes improved tropical cyclone wind structure and storm size information that offers better predictability and accuracy. This upgrade extends the lead time of P-Surge forecast guidance from 48 to 60 hours in situations where there is high confidence.<\/li>\n<li>NOAA\u2019s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory will deploy its largest array of air and water uncrewed systems to gather data designed\u00a0to help improve hurricane intensity forecasts and forecast models. New\u00a0drones\u00a0will be launched from\u00a0NOAA Hurricane Hunter\u00a0aircraft that will fly into the lower part of hurricanes, and in the ocean, saildrones,\u00a0hurricane gliders,\u00a0global drifters, and\u00a0air-deployable technology \u2014 called ALAMO floats\u00a0\u2014 will track various parts of the life cycle of tropical storms.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Last year\u2019s record-breaking season serves as a reminder to all residents in coastal regions or areas prone to inland flooding from rainfall to be prepared for the 2021 hurricane season.<\/p>\n<figure role=\"group\">\n<article>\n<div class=\"field field--name-field-media-image field--type-image field--label-hidden\">\n<div class=\"field__item\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" title=\"A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2021 Atlantic tropical cyclone\u00a0names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The first named storm\u00a0\u00a0of the season.\u00a0The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs\u00a0through November 30. (NOAA)\" src=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/2021-05\/GRAPHIC-2021-Hurricane-Outlook-names-052021-5333x3317-highres.png\" alt=\"A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2021 Atlantic tropical cyclone\u00a0names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The first named storm\u00a0\u00a0of the season.\u00a0The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs\u00a0through November 30.\" width=\"507\" height=\"315\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article><figcaption><span class=\"caption-text\">A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2021 Atlantic tropical cyclone\u00a0names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The first named storm\u00a0\u00a0of the season.\u00a0The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs\u00a0through November 30.<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"credit\">(NOAA)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&#8220;With hurricane season starting on June 1, now is the time to get ready and advance disaster resilience in our communities,&#8221; said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. \u201cVisit\u00a0Ready.gov\u00a0and\u00a0Listo.gov\u00a0to learn and take the steps to prepare yourself and others in your household. Download the\u00a0FEMA app\u00a0to sign-up for a variety of alerts and to access preparedness information. Purchase\u00a0flood insurance\u00a0to protect your greatest asset, your home. And, please encourage your neighbors, friends and coworkers to also\u00a0get ready for the upcoming season.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the\u00a0Eastern\u00a0and\u00a0Central Pacific\u00a0basins, and\u00a0will provide an update to the Atlantic outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.<\/p>\n<p>Visit FEMA\u2019s\u00a0Ready.gov\u00a0to be prepared for the start of hurricane season and the National Hurricane Center\u2019s website at\u00a0hurricanes.gov\u00a0throughout the season to stay current on watches and warnings.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"field field--name-field-media-contact field--type-text-long field--label-hidden\">\n<div class=\"field__item\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Media contact<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Lauren Gaches,\u00a0<a href=\"mailto:lauren.gaches@noaa.gov\">lauren.gaches@noaa.gov<\/a>, (202) 740-8314<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>May 20, 2021 &#8211; NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters predict a 60% chance [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":51031,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3192],"tags":[4054,4056,4052,4055,4053],"class_list":["post-51028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cdap-disaster-bulletin","tag-2021-atlantic-tropical-cyclone-names","tag-el-nino-southern-oscillation-enso","tag-fema","tag-national-hurricane-centre","tag-noaas-climate-protection-centre"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/NOAA-Article-Bulletin-June-2021-1024x540.png","month_date":"Jun","day_date":"15","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51028","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51028"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51028\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/51031"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}