{"id":55820,"date":"2021-08-31T07:18:26","date_gmt":"2021-08-31T11:18:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.carilec.org\/?p=55820"},"modified":"2021-08-31T07:18:26","modified_gmt":"2021-08-31T11:18:26","slug":"what-we-know-about-climate-change-and-hurricanes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/what-we-know-about-climate-change-and-hurricanes\/","title":{"rendered":"What We Know About Climate Change and Hurricanes"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_55822\" style=\"width: 610px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-55822\" class=\"wp-image-55822\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/29cli-hurricanechange-2-superJumbo-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/29cli-hurricanechange-2-superJumbo-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/29cli-hurricanechange-2-superJumbo-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/29cli-hurricanechange-2-superJumbo-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/29cli-hurricanechange-2-superJumbo-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/29cli-hurricanechange-2-superJumbo-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/29cli-hurricanechange-2-superJumbo.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-55822\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Flooded streets in LaPlace, La., on Monday.Credit&#8230;Emily<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-avv6cj\">\n<div class=\"css-158auor\">\n<div class=\"css-f11ndi epjyd6m1\">\n<div class=\"css-233int epjyd6m0\">\n<div class=\"css-f11ndi epjyd6m1\">\n<div class=\"css-233int epjyd6m0\">\n<p class=\"css-aknsld e1jsehar1\"><span class=\"byline-prefix\">By\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"css-1baulvz last-byline\"><a class=\"css-ozn3l9 e1jsehar0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/veronica-penney\">Veronica Penney<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"css-aknsld e1jsehar1\"><span class=\"css-1sbuyqj e16638kd3\">Published\u00a0Aug. 29, 2021<\/span><span class=\"css-233int e16638kd4\">Updated Aug. 30, 2021<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"meteredContent css-1r7ky0e\">\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/08\/29\/us\/hurricane-ida-explained.html\">Hurricane Ida<\/a>\u00a0intensified overnight, becoming a Category 4 storm over the course of just a few hours. The rapid increase in strength raises questions about how much climate change is affecting hurricanes in the\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2021\/03\/02\/climate\/atlantic-ocean-climate-change.html\">Atlantic Ocean<\/a>. While researchers can\u2019t say for sure whether human-caused climate change will mean longer or more\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/05\/22\/us\/ana-storm.html\">active hurricane seasons<\/a>\u00a0in the future, there is broad agreement on one thing: Global warming is changing storms.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Scientists say that unusually warm Atlantic surface temperatures have helped to increase storm activity. \u201cIt\u2019s very likely that human-caused climate change contributed to that anomalously warm ocean,\u201d said James P. Kossin, a climate scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. \u201cClimate change is making it more likely for hurricanes to behave in certain ways.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Here are some of those ways.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-322710fc\" class=\"css-1aoo5yy eoo0vm40\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">1. Higher winds<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">There\u2019s a solid scientific consensus that\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/05\/18\/climate\/climate-changes-hurricane-intensity.html\">hurricanes are becoming more powerful<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">Hurricanes are complex, but one of the key factors that determines how strong a given storm ultimately becomes is ocean surface temperature, because warmer water provides more of the energy that fuels storms.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">\u201cPotential intensity is going up,\u201d said Kerry Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. \u201cWe predicted it would go up 30 years ago, and the observations show it going up.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">Stronger winds mean downed power lines, damaged roofs and, when paired with rising sea levels, worse coastal flooding.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">\u201cEven if storms themselves weren\u2019t changing, the storm surge is riding on an elevated sea level,\u201d Dr. Emanuel said. He used New York City as an example, where sea levels have risen about a foot in the past century. \u201cIf Sandy\u2019s storm surge had occurred in 1912 rather than 2012,\u201d he said, \u201cit probably wouldn\u2019t have flooded Lower Manhattan.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-cff2b97\" class=\"css-1aoo5yy eoo0vm40\">2. More rain<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">Warming also increases the amount of water vapor that the atmosphere can hold. In fact, every degree Celsius of warming allows the air to hold about 7 percent more water.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">That means we can expect future storms to unleash higher amounts of rainfall.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-72219498\" class=\"css-1aoo5yy eoo0vm40\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">3. Slower storms<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Researchers do not yet know why storms are moving more slowly, but they are. Some say a slowdown in global atmospheric circulation, or global winds, could be partly to blame.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">In a 2018 paper, Dr. Kossin found that hurricanes over the United States had slowed 17 percent since 1947. Combined with the increase in rain rates, storms are causing a 25 percent increase in local rainfall in the United States, he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">Slower, wetter storms also worsen flooding. Dr. Kossin likened the problem to walking around your back yard while using a hose to spray water on the ground. If you walk fast, the water won\u2019t have a chance to start pooling. But if you walk slowly, he said, \u201cyou\u2019ll get a lot of rain below you.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-7a71c9bb\" class=\"css-1aoo5yy eoo0vm40\">4. Wider-ranging storms<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">Because warmer water helps fuel hurricanes, climate change is enlarging the zone where hurricanes can form.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">There\u2019s a \u201cmigration of tropical cyclones out of the tropics and toward subtropics and middle latitudes,\u201d Dr. Kossin said. That could mean more storms making landfall in higher latitudes, like in the United States or Japan.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-4f42f93a\" class=\"css-1aoo5yy eoo0vm40\">5. More volatility<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">As the climate warms, researchers also say they expect storms to intensify more rapidly. Researchers are still unsure why it\u2019s happening, but the trend appears to be clear.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">In a 2017 paper based on climate and hurricane models, Dr. Emanuel found that storms that intensify rapidly \u2014 the ones that increase their wind speed by 70 miles per hour or more in the 24 hours before landfall \u2014 were rare in the period from 1976 through 2005. On average, he estimated, their likelihood in those years was equal to about once per century.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">By the end of the 21st century, he found, those storms might form\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/bams\/article\/98\/3\/495\/70036\/Will-Global-Warming-Make-Hurricane-Forecasting\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">once every five or 10 years<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">\u201cIt\u2019s a forecaster\u2019s nightmare,\u201d Dr. Emanuel said. If a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane develops into a Category 4 hurricane overnight, he said, \u201cthere\u2019s no time to evacuate people.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"css-1375xv5\">\n<div class=\"css-h4xb2d\">\n<div id=\"CLIM\">SOURCE:<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-55823\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/nyt-300x38.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"200\" height=\"25\" srcset=\"https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/nyt-300x38.png 300w, https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/nyt.png 316w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<div id=\"bottom-wrapper\" class=\"css-2fttua\">\n<div id=\"bottom-slug\" class=\"css-l9onyx\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"MAG_web_regis-subs_all_magic-link shown standard css-3fbowa e1x0szx60\" data-testid=\"standard-dock\" aria-label=\"A message from The Times\">\n<div class=\"css-1j60uda egw6tc40\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"button\" data-testid=\"standard-dock-heading-selector\">\n<div class=\"css-13321i0\">\n<div class=\"css-etcaty\">\n<div class=\"css-tb7453 egw6tc41\">\n<div class=\"css-olbrqf\">\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By\u00a0Veronica Penney Published\u00a0Aug. 29, 2021Updated Aug. 30, 2021 Hurricane Ida\u00a0intensified overnight, becoming a Category 4 storm over the course of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":165,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-55820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.svg","month_date":"Aug","day_date":"31","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55820","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/165"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55820"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55820\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}