{"id":65073,"date":"2022-02-03T16:51:53","date_gmt":"2022-02-03T20:51:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.carilec.org\/?p=65073"},"modified":"2022-02-03T16:51:53","modified_gmt":"2022-02-03T20:51:53","slug":"how-spiking-energy-prices-complicate-the-fight-against-global-warming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/how-spiking-energy-prices-complicate-the-fight-against-global-warming\/","title":{"rendered":"How Spiking Energy Prices Complicate the Fight Against Global Warming"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"byline-prefix\">By\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"css-1baulvz last-byline\"><a class=\"css-mrorfa e1jsehar0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/brad-plumer\">Brad Plumer<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Oil and gas prices are soaring, while coal use is reaching record highs worldwide. Here\u2019s what the upheaval could mean for climate policies across the globe.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_65075\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-65075\" class=\"wp-image-65075\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"333\" srcset=\"https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-65075\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A coal-burning power plant in western France. Worldwide demand for coal has been surging as economies bounce back from pandemic lows.Credit&#8230;Loic Venance\/Agence France-Presse \u2014 Getty Images<\/p><\/div>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">WASHINGTON \u2014 While world leaders have vowed to scale back the use of fossil fuels to help keep a lid on global warming, a drastic upheaval in the markets for oil, natural gas and coal could complicate the shift toward cleaner sources of energy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Global oil prices\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/02\/02\/business\/economy\/oil-price.html\">have soared to their highest level in seven years<\/a>, nearing $90 per barrel, as fears grow of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Europe is in the grips of\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/12\/22\/business\/europe-natural-gas-prices.html\">a severe natural gas crunch<\/a>\u00a0that has roiled energy markets worldwide. And global demand for coal, the dirtiest of all fossil fuels,\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/coal-2021\/executive-summary\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">has surged to record highs<\/a>\u00a0as economies bounce back from pandemic lows.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">There\u2019s a broader lesson here, energy experts said. Even as governments and businesses invest in low-carbon energy sources like wind and solar power, the world will remain deeply reliant on fossil fuels for years to come. Unless that transition is carefully managed, many countries could face volatile energy prices and other disruptions that, in turn, threaten to undermine support for policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">Here are four big trends to watch.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"link-25b819c1\" class=\"css-1aoo5yy eoo0vm40\">Higher Oil Prices, More Drilling?<\/h3>\n<div id=\"attachment_65077\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-65077\" class=\"wp-image-65077\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times-2-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"333\" srcset=\"https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times-2-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times-2-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times-2-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times-2.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-65077\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A pumpjack in Signal Hill, Calif. Credit&#8230;Jae C. Hong\/Associated Press<\/p><\/div>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/news-event\/coronavirus\">coronavirus pandemic<\/a>\u00a0struck in 2020, global investment in oil and gas projects\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2021-12-07\/oil-gas-investments-must-rise-to-523-billion-a-year-says-ief?sref=UBrhZ1ro\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">declined by 30 percent<\/a>\u00a0and has been slow to recover. But global demand for oil has snapped back faster and is projected to reach records this year, as economies rebound. Supplies have struggled to keep up.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">On top of that, recent geopolitical turmoil \u2014 including supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine \u2014 have lifted oil prices to their highest levels since 2014.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although Western oil companies have been drilling fewer wells since the pandemic began, partly held back by investors wary of unprofitable projects, high prices could shift that calculus. On Tuesday, Exxon Mobil\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/corporate.exxonmobil.com\/-\/media\/Global\/Files\/investor-relations\/quarterly-earnings\/presentation-materials\/2021-presentation-materials\/earnings-presentation-4q.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">announced<\/a>\u00a0it would increase spending on new oil wells and other projects by up to 45 percent this year after reporting $23 billion in profits for 2021, its best result in seven years.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Carbon Tracker, a London-based think tank, cautioned\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/carbontracker.org\/reports\/managing-peak-oil\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">last week<\/a>\u00a0that higher oil prices may lead energy companies to invest billions in new drilling projects that could undermine international efforts to fight climate change.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">In the United States, rising gasoline prices \u2014 currently averaging $3.40 per gallon, a dollar higher than a year ago \u2014 have been a drag on the approval ratings of President Biden,\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/01\/04\/climate\/biden-climate-change.html\">who is struggling to persuade Congress to pass climate policies<\/a>\u00a0aimed at reducing fossil-fuel emissions. At the same time, the Biden administration has defended moves to issue new oil and gas permits on public lands, although those efforts\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/01\/28\/climate\/climate-oil-drilling-gulf-mexico.html\">have been slowed<\/a>\u00a0by federal courts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">But high oil prices aren\u2019t always bad news for clean energy. They can also depress oil demand by, for example, pushing people to buy electric vehicles that don\u2019t require gasoline. Last year, electric cars made up 20 percent of all new sales in Europe and 15 percent of new sales in China,\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-02-01\/china-europe-ev-sales-reach-inflection-point-with-fast-growth?srnd=green&amp;sref=UBrhZ1ro\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">according to BloombergNEF<\/a>, a research group.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"link-3e501559\" class=\"css-1aoo5yy eoo0vm40\">A Gas Shortage Roils Europe<\/h3>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">In recent months, the world has struggled with spiking prices for natural gas, a fuel used in both power plants and home heating, that\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/10\/01\/business\/natural-gas-prices.html\">has caused ripple effects across the globe<\/a>. Utility bills have soared from Italy to South Korea, while fertilizer plants in Britain and Germany have had to curtail operations. (Natural gas is a key ingredient in nitrogen-based fertilizer.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">The causes of the gas crunch are numerous: Global demand has rebounded faster than supply since the pandemic began; lower output from hydropower dams in China and Brazil have led to a surge of gas imports; a cold snap last spring across Europe increased demand and reduced gas inventories.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">The crisis is particularly acute in Europe, where natural gas prices are now five times as high as they were a year ago. Officials are\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/01\/25\/business\/energy-environment\/russia-europe-natural-gas-ukraine.html\">racing to procure new shipments of gas from overseas<\/a>\u00a0in case Russia, which provides one-third of Europe\u2019s natural gas, curtails supplies in the event of a conflict over Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">There are also signs the gas crunch\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/10\/29\/climate\/europe-energy-crisis-cop.html\">could undermine unity<\/a> within the European Union over policies to fight climate change.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Officials are currently debating a sweeping new set of clean-energy measures aimed at cutting emissions by 2030. Some nations, like Spain, have called for a faster shift away from fossil fuels to reduce Europe\u2019s exposure to gas markets. But others, like Poland,\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/poland-seeks-eu-climate-policy-rethink-amid-high-energy-prices-2021-10-18\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">have urged a delay in stricter climate action<\/a>\u00a0amid the crisis.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">And there\u2019s the possibility that skyrocketing energy prices could bolster unrest akin to the \u201cYellow Vests\u201d protests in 2018, which forced the French government\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/12\/04\/world\/europe\/france-fuel-tax-yellow-vests.html\">to backtrack on plans<\/a>\u00a0to increase fuel taxes as a way to reduce emissions.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"link-323993b9\" class=\"css-1aoo5yy eoo0vm40\">Coal Reaches Record Highs<\/h3>\n<div id=\"attachment_65079\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-65079\" class=\"wp-image-65079\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times-3-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"333\" srcset=\"https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times-3-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times-3-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times-3-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times-3.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-65079\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Coal being unloaded from barges in North Jakarta, Indonesia. Credit&#8230;Willy Kurniawan\/Reuters<\/p><\/div>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Across the globe, rising natural gas prices have provided a boost to coal, which typically produces twice as much carbon dioxide as gas when burned for electricity, driving up planet-warming emissions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Global coal consumption reached a record in 2021 and was on track to rise further in 2022, the International Energy Agency\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/coal-2021\/executive-summary\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">recently said<\/a>. That was partly because electricity demand is surging in countries like China and India, and investment in renewable energy has not kept pace. But high natural gas prices have also spurred many electric utilities to turn to coal.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">The United States is one example. Over the past decade, as advances in fracking led to a boom in domestic gas production, the country\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/01\/05\/energy\/us-lng-exports\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">has become one of the world\u2019s largest exporters<\/a>\u00a0of liquefied natural gas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Those exports have become a key source of global supply during the latest crisis. But they have also boosted natural gas prices at home, which in turn means that some utilities are finding it economical to run their coal plants more often. Last year, U.S. coal power emissions\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/01\/10\/climate\/emissions-pandemic-rebound.html\">increased 17 percent<\/a>\u00a0after years of falling steadily, putting the country further off course from reaching its climate goals.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cIt really illustrates how much we\u2019ve depended on cheap natural gas prices to keep coal in decline,\u201d said Kate Larsen, a partner at the Rhodium Group, a research firm. \u201cOverall, we still expect coal to decline further in the years ahead, but unless there are new policies put in place to clean up the power sector, the coal industry could see a bit of a lifeline if there are big swings in the gas market.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h3 id=\"link-7ace2468\" class=\"css-1aoo5yy eoo0vm40\">A Bumpy Transition<\/h3>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">In a\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/europe-world-need-draw-right-lessons-from-todays-natural-fatih-birol\/?utm_source=SendGrid&amp;utm_medium=Email&amp;utm_campaign=IEA+newsletters\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">recent essay<\/a>, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, argued that climate change policies were not to blame for the current global energy crisis. But, he warned, \u201cthat does not mean that the road to net zero emissions will be smooth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">One problem, he said, is that while many countries have cut back on investments in fossil fuels like oil and gas in recent years, energy demand is still rising, and nations have not spent enough on cleaner sources like wind, solar or nuclear power to fill the gap. If the world wants to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels \u2014 a goal many leaders have endorsed to avoid the worst consequences of climate change \u2014 global investment in clean energy would need to triple from current levels by 2030.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Mr. Birol also noted that, because many countries will remain reliant on fossil fuels for years to come, they will need to take steps to prepare for market disruptions, such as improved gas storage in Europe or energy efficiency measures that can blunt the damage from rising prices. \u201cThis needs to happen quickly,\u201d he wrote, \u201cor global energy markets will face a turbulent and volatile period ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n<h5>Brad Plumer is a climate reporter specializing in policy and technology efforts to cut carbon dioxide emissions. At The Times, he has also covered international climate talks and the changing energy landscape in the United States.\u00a0<span class=\"css-4w91ra\"><a class=\"css-1rj8to8\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/bradplumer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span class=\"css-0\">@<\/span>bradplumer<\/a><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>SOURCE:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-65083\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/New-York-Times-888.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"23\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By\u00a0Brad Plumer Oil and gas prices are soaring, while coal use is reaching record highs worldwide. Here\u2019s what the upheaval [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":165,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-65073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.svg","month_date":"Feb","day_date":"3","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65073","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/165"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65073"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65073\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65073"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65073"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65073"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}