{"id":72933,"date":"2022-07-20T12:11:17","date_gmt":"2022-07-20T16:11:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.carilec.org\/?p=72933"},"modified":"2022-07-20T12:11:17","modified_gmt":"2022-07-20T16:11:17","slug":"how-record-setting-heat-waves-in-cities-across-uk-us-and-mainland-europe-could-punish-economies-already-reeling-from-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/how-record-setting-heat-waves-in-cities-across-uk-us-and-mainland-europe-could-punish-economies-already-reeling-from-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"How record-setting heat waves in cities across UK, US and mainland Europe could punish economies already reeling from inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A runner tries to beat the heat by working out in the morning. AP Photo\/Michael Probst<\/p><\/div>\n

Hundreds of millions of people struggled to keep cool amid a sweltering summer heat wave as cities across the\u00a0U.S.<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0mainland Europe<\/a>\u00a0experienced\u00a0record-high temperatures<\/a>. In the\u00a0U.K.<\/a>, thermometers topped 104 Fahrenheit (40 degrees Celsius) on July 19, 2022, the highest ever recorded.<\/p>\n

While all this broiling heat is surely punishing on a personal level, it also has significant impacts on the broader economy.<\/p>\n

As an\u00a0economist who has studied<\/a>\u00a0the\u00a0effects of weather and climate change<\/a>, I have examined a large body of work that links heat to economic outcomes. Here are four ways extreme heat hurts the economy.<\/p>\n

1. Growth takes a hit<\/h2>\n

Research has found that extreme heat can directly hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n

For example, a 2018 study found that the economies of U.S. states tend to grow at a slower pace<\/a>\u00a0during relatively hot summers. The data shows that annual economic growth falls 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points for every 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.56 C) that a state\u2019s average summer temperature is above normal.<\/p>\n

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Laborers in weather-exposed industries such as construction\u00a0work fewer hours<\/a>\u00a0when it\u2019s hotter. But higher summer temperatures also reduce growth in many industries that tend to involve indoor work, including retail, services and finance. Workers are less productive when it\u2019s hotter out.<\/p>\n

2. Crop yields drop<\/h2>\n

Agriculture is obviously exposed to weather: After all, crops grow outdoors.<\/p>\n

While temperatures up to around 85 F to 90 F (29-32 C) can benefit crop growth,\u00a0yields fall sharply<\/a>\u00a0when thermostats rise further. Some of the crops that can be hit hard by extreme heat include corn, soybeans and cotton. These reductions in yields could be costly for U.S. agriculture.<\/p>\n

For example, a recent study I conducted found that an additional 2 degrees C (3.6 F) of global warming\u00a0would eliminate profits<\/a>\u00a0from an average acre of farmland in the eastern U.S.<\/p>\n

A prominent example of this was the\u00a0collapse of the Russian wheat harvest<\/a>\u00a0in response to the country\u2019s 2010 heat wave, which raised wheat prices throughout the world.<\/p>\n

3. Energy use soars<\/h2>\n

Of course, when it\u2019s hot,\u00a0energy use goes up<\/a>\u00a0as\u00a0people and businesses run their air conditioners<\/a>\u00a0and other cooling equipment at full blast.<\/p>\n

A\u00a02011 study found<\/a>\u00a0that just one extra day with temperatures above 90 F (32 C) increases annual household energy use by 0.4%.\u00a0More recent research<\/a>\u00a0shows that energy use increases the most in places that tend to be hotter, probably because more households have air conditioning.<\/p>\n

This increase in electricity use on hot days stresses electric grids right when people depend on them most, as seen in\u00a0California<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Texas<\/a>\u00a0during past heat waves. Blackouts can be quite costly for the economy, as inventories of food and other goods can spoil and many businesses either have to run generators or shut down. For instance, the 2019 California blackouts\u00a0cost an estimated US$10 billion<\/a>.<\/p>\n

4. Education and earnings suffer<\/h2>\n

A long-term impact of increasingly hotter weather involves how it affects children\u2019s ability to learn \u2013 and thus their future earnings.<\/p>\n

Research has shown that hot weather during the school year reduces test scores.\u00a0Math scores decrease more and more<\/a>\u00a0as the temperature rises beyond 70 F (21 C). Reading scores are more resistant to high temperatures, which this research claims is consistent with how different regions of the brain respond to heat.<\/p>\n

One study suggested that students in schools that lack air conditioning\u00a0learn 1% less<\/a>\u00a0for every 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.56 C) increase in the school year\u2019s average temperature. It also found that minority students are especially affected by hotter school years, as their schools are more likely to lack air conditioning.<\/p>\n

Lost learning results in\u00a0lower lifetime earnings<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0hurts future economic growth<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The impact of extreme heat on development, in fact, begins before we\u2019re even born.\u00a0Research has found<\/a>\u00a0that adults who were exposed to extreme heat as fetuses\u00a0earn less during their lifetimes<\/a>. Each extra day with average temperature above 90 F (32 C) reduces earnings 30 years later\u00a0by 0.1%<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Air conditioning can help \u2013 to a point<\/h2>\n

Air conditioning can offset some of these effects.<\/p>\n

For example, studies have found that having a working air conditioner means\u00a0fewer people die<\/a>,\u00a0student learning isn\u2019t compromised<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0extreme heat outside during pregnancy doesn\u2019t hurt fetuses<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Not everyone has air conditioners, however, especially in states such as\u00a0Oregon<\/a>\u00a0and countries such as the\u00a0U.K.<\/a>\u00a0that have more temperate climates but have nonetheless recently experienced unusually extreme temperatures. And many people\u00a0can\u2019t afford<\/a>\u00a0to own or operate them. Survey data from 2017 found that\u00a0around half of homes in the U.S. Pacific Northwest<\/a>\u00a0lacked air conditioning. And\u00a0about 42% of U.S. classrooms<\/a>\u00a0lack an air conditioner.<\/p>\n

While heat waves are shown to\u00a0induce more households<\/a>\u00a0to install air conditioning, it\u2019s hardly a panacea. By 2100, higher use of air conditioning could\u00a0increase residential energy consumption by 83% globally<\/a>. If that energy comes from fossil fuels, it could end up amplifying the heat waves that are causing the higher demand in the first place.<\/p>\n

And in the U.S. South, where air conditioning is omnipresent, hotter-than-usual summers still\u00a0take the greatest toll<\/a>\u00a0on states\u2019 economic growth.<\/p>\n

In other words, as temperatures rise, economies will continue to suffer.<\/p>\n

This is an updated version of an\u00a0article originally published<\/a>\u00a0on Aug. 2, 2021.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0SOURCE: \"\"<\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Hundreds of millions of people struggled to keep cool amid a sweltering summer heat wave as cities across the\u00a0U.S.\u00a0and\u00a0mainland Europe\u00a0experienced\u00a0record-high […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":165,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[4246,4547,4544,4550,4543,4549,4545,4546,4548],"class_list":["post-72933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-drought","tag-economies","tag-energyuse","tag-extremeheat","tag-heatwave","tag-hotweather","tag-risingtemperatures","tag-temperaturerecords","tag-wildfires"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.svg","month_date":"Jul","day_date":"20","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72933","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/165"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72933"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72933\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72933"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72933"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72933"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}