{"id":81596,"date":"2023-05-16T14:40:59","date_gmt":"2023-05-16T18:40:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.carilec.org\/?p=81596"},"modified":"2023-05-16T14:40:59","modified_gmt":"2023-05-16T18:40:59","slug":"intense-heat-waves-occur-primarily-because-of-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/intense-heat-waves-occur-primarily-because-of-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Intense heat waves occur primarily because of climate change"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-81599\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Andrew.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"49\" height=\"49\" \/><a class=\"font-regular font-sans leading-none inline-flex items-center no-underline Anchor_anchor__Gw9JU gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/authors\/afreedman\" data-vars-content-id=\"d6444b45-b99b-45d5-a064-3b77a592e6ee\" data-vars-headline=\"Intense heat waves occur primarily because of climate change\" data-vars-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"author-line\" data-vars-link-text=\"Andrew Freedman\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/authors\/afreedman\"><span class=\"text-soft-black-core tag\">Andrew Freedman<\/span><\/a>, author of\u00a0<a class=\"font-regular font-sans leading-none inline-flex items-center no-underline Anchor_anchor__Gw9JU gtmContentClick Anchor_primary-underline__cTJYp hover:no-underline\" href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/newsletters\/axios-generate\" data-vars-content-id=\"d6444b45-b99b-45d5-a064-3b77a592e6ee\" data-vars-headline=\"Axios Generate\" data-vars-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"newsletter-line\" data-vars-link-text=\"Axios Generate\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/newsletters\/axios-generate\">Axios Generate<\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_81600\" style=\"width: 710px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-81600\" class=\"wp-image-81600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Heat-300x168.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"392\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-81600\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Illustration: Shoshana Gordon\/Axios<\/p><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Climate change made a heat wave that struck Western Europe and Northwest Africa in April at least 100 times more likely to occur, a\u00a0<a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/spiral.imperial.ac.uk\/bitstream\/10044\/1\/103833\/9\/Scientific%20Report%20West%20Mediterranean%20Heat.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-vars-link-text=\"new study finds\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/spiral.imperial.ac.uk\/bitstream\/10044\/1\/103833\/9\/Scientific%20Report%20West%20Mediterranean%20Heat.pdf\" data-vars-content-id=\"d6444b45-b99b-45d5-a064-3b77a592e6ee\" data-vars-headline=\"Intense heat waves occur primarily because of climate change\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\">new study finds<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Why it matters:\u00a0<\/strong>The study, from the World Weather Attribution initiative, concludes that without human-caused warming, this heat wave would have been &#8220;almost impossible.&#8221; Its findings are based on peer reviewed, published methods, but the new research has not itself been peer reviewed yet.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>This is one in a string of studies to come to similar conclusions on extreme heat events.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>Separately, other researchers have also reached these conclusions about\u00a0<a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/japans-deadly-2018-heatwave-could-not-have-happened-without-climate-change\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-vars-link-text=\"Japan's record hot 2018 summer\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/japans-deadly-2018-heatwave-could-not-have-happened-without-climate-change\/\" data-vars-content-id=\"d6444b45-b99b-45d5-a064-3b77a592e6ee\" data-vars-headline=\"Intense heat waves occur primarily because of climate change\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\">Japan&#8217;s record hot 2018 summer<\/a>, and\u00a0<a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/epdf\/10.1029\/2019EF001189\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-vars-link-text=\"Northern Hemisphere heat waves\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/epdf\/10.1029\/2019EF001189\" data-vars-content-id=\"d6444b45-b99b-45d5-a064-3b77a592e6ee\" data-vars-headline=\"Intense heat waves occur primarily because of climate change\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\">Northern Hemisphere heat waves<\/a>\u00a0during 2018.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Zoom in:\u00a0<\/strong>The heat wave comes as a severe\u00a0<a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/defis_eu\/status\/1655125895143739392?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-vars-link-text=\"multiyear drought\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/defis_eu\/status\/1655125895143739392?s=20\" data-vars-content-id=\"d6444b45-b99b-45d5-a064-3b77a592e6ee\" data-vars-headline=\"Intense heat waves occur primarily because of climate change\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\">multiyear drought<\/a>\u00a0bakes the region, with reservoirs running especially low in Spain, and crops impacted.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>The new study found that a heat wave of this magnitude in this region is currently about a 1-in-400-year event.<\/li>\n<li>In other words, such a heat wave has about a 0.25% chance of occurring in any given year.<\/li>\n<li>The study concludes that human-caused climate change made the heat wave at least 100 times more likely to occur, cautioning that this is likely a conservative estimate.<\/li>\n<li>It also finds that climate change also made the heat wave far more severe by increasing temperatures during the height of the event by up to 3.5\u00b0C (6.3\u00b0F) when compared to a world without added amounts of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Driving the news:\u00a0<\/strong>The researchers examined a heat wave that broke national records for the month of April in Portugal and Spain, with other records broken in Morocco and Algeria.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>They did so by looking at weather data and computer model simulations of the climate today, which is altered by about 1.2\u00b0C (2.16\u00b0F) of warming since the early 1800s, compared to the pre-industrial climate.<\/li>\n<li>Scientists zeroed in on average maximum temperatures for three straight days in April in parts of Spain, Portugal, Morocco and Algeria.<\/li>\n<li>In Portugal, for example, the temperature reached 36.9\u00b0C (98.4\u00b0F) and 38.8\u00b0C (101.8\u00b0F) in Spain, both of which exceeded all-time records for the month.<\/li>\n<li>The\u00a0<a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mikarantane\/status\/1651622978629582855?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-vars-link-text=\"record from C\u00f3rdoba, Spain\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mikarantane\/status\/1651622978629582855?s=20\" data-vars-content-id=\"d6444b45-b99b-45d5-a064-3b77a592e6ee\" data-vars-headline=\"Intense heat waves occur primarily because of climate change\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\">record from C\u00f3rdoba, Spain<\/a>, also set provisional monthly high temperature record for all of Europe.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"gtmView\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-vars-category=\"cta\" data-vars-experiment=\"mid_story_ad\" data-vars-experiment-variant=\"ad\" data-vars-label=\"cta\/view\/mid_story_ad\/ad\" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-48430672_37=\"11460\" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-48430672_37=\"1000\" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-48430672_37=\"1\">\n<div class=\"mt-6 mb-6\">\n<div class=\"gtmView midStoryAd grid justify-center items-center py-2 up-to-lg:overflow-hidden\" data-cy=\"mid-story-ad\" data-vars-category=\"ad\" data-vars-sub-category=\"mid_story\" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-48430672_37=\"11460\" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-48430672_37=\"1000\" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-48430672_37=\"1\">\n<div class=\"adunitContainer\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Context:\u00a0<\/strong>This new study is part of a trend toward making more definitive and stronger statements about the link between heat waves and climate change. It is the latest to quantify the low likelihood of extreme heat events\u00a0<em>without<\/em>\u00a0human-caused warming.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>Studies from the\u00a0<a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldweatherattribution.org\/about\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-vars-link-text=\"same group of researchers\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/www.worldweatherattribution.org\/about\/\" data-vars-content-id=\"d6444b45-b99b-45d5-a064-3b77a592e6ee\" data-vars-headline=\"Intense heat waves occur primarily because of climate change\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\">same group of researchers<\/a>\u00a0seek to communicate the potential relationship between extreme weather events and climate change.<\/li>\n<li>They came to\u00a0<a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldweatherattribution.org\/western-north-american-extreme-heat-virtually-impossible-without-human-caused-climate-change\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-vars-link-text=\"similar conclusions\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/www.worldweatherattribution.org\/western-north-american-extreme-heat-virtually-impossible-without-human-caused-climate-change\/\" data-vars-content-id=\"d6444b45-b99b-45d5-a064-3b77a592e6ee\" data-vars-headline=\"Intense heat waves occur primarily because of climate change\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\">similar conclusions<\/a>\u00a0with the\u00a0<a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2021\/07\/08\/pacific-northwest-heat-wave-climate-change\" target=\"_self\" data-vars-link-text=\"Pacific Northwest heat wave in 2021\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2021\/07\/08\/pacific-northwest-heat-wave-climate-change\" data-vars-content-id=\"d6444b45-b99b-45d5-a064-3b77a592e6ee\" data-vars-headline=\"Intense heat waves occur primarily because of climate change\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\" rel=\"noopener\">Pacific Northwest heat wave in 2021<\/a>, the\u00a0<a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldweatherattribution.org\/siberian-heatwave-of-2020-almost-impossible-without-climate-change\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-vars-link-text=\"Siberian heat wave of 2020\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/www.worldweatherattribution.org\/siberian-heatwave-of-2020-almost-impossible-without-climate-change\/\" data-vars-content-id=\"d6444b45-b99b-45d5-a064-3b77a592e6ee\" data-vars-headline=\"Intense heat waves occur primarily because of climate change\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\">Siberian heat wave of 2020<\/a>, and\u00a0<a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldweatherattribution.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/UK-heat-scientific-report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-vars-link-text=\"a U.K. heat wave last year\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/www.worldweatherattribution.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/UK-heat-scientific-report.pdf\" data-vars-content-id=\"d6444b45-b99b-45d5-a064-3b77a592e6ee\" data-vars-headline=\"Intense heat waves occur primarily because of climate change\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\">a U.K. heat wave last year<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Between the lines:\u00a0<\/strong>Strong attribution statements on extreme heat reflects experts&#8217; straightforward, high-confidence in the effects of human-caused climate change.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>As the climate warms, the probability and severity of heat waves\u00a0<a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatecentral.org\/graphic\/introducing-the-climate-shift-index?graphicSet=Change+in+Extremes&amp;location=&amp;lang=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-vars-link-text=\"dramatically shifts\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/www.climatecentral.org\/graphic\/introducing-the-climate-shift-index?graphicSet=Change+in+Extremes&amp;location=&amp;lang=en\" data-vars-content-id=\"d6444b45-b99b-45d5-a064-3b77a592e6ee\" data-vars-headline=\"Intense heat waves occur primarily because of climate change\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\">dramatically shifts<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Other events tend to be associated with greater uncertainty, such as\u00a0<a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2023\/04\/27\/drought-horn-africa-climate-change-role\" target=\"_self\" data-vars-link-text=\"droughts\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2023\/04\/27\/drought-horn-africa-climate-change-role\" data-vars-content-id=\"d6444b45-b99b-45d5-a064-3b77a592e6ee\" data-vars-headline=\"Intense heat waves occur primarily because of climate change\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\" rel=\"noopener\">droughts<\/a>\u00a0and extreme rainfall; though there too, the climate change signal is quickly emerging.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Yes, but:\u00a0<\/strong>Other researchers, outside the attribution initiative, may yet use different methods to study some of the same extreme events, and come to less strident conclusions on their climate change ties.<\/p>\n<p><strong>SOURCE: <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-81601\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/aXIOS.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"96\" height=\"34\" \/><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Andrew Freedman, author of\u00a0Axios Generate Climate change made a heat wave that struck Western Europe and Northwest Africa in April [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":165,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-81596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.svg","month_date":"May","day_date":"16","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81596","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/165"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81596"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81596\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}