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NOAA GOES satellite captures Hurricane Ian as it made landfall on the barrier island of Cayo Costa in southwest Florida on September 28, 2022.<\/p><\/div>\n
NOAA forecasters with the\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/a>, a division of the National Weather Service, predict near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. NOAA\u2019s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.<\/p>\n NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.<\/p>\n A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA’s 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. (Image credit: NOAA)<\/p><\/div>\n Thanks to the Commerce Department and NOAA\u2019s critical investments this year in scientific and technological advancements in hurricane modeling, NOAA will be able to deliver even more accurate forecasts, helping ensure communities have the information they need to prepare for and respond to the destructive economic and ecological impacts of Atlantic hurricanes,\u201d said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo.<\/p>\n A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. (Image credit: NOAA)<\/p><\/div>\n The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors \u2014 some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it\u00a0\u2014 driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season.<\/p>\n After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for\u00a0El Nino to develop<\/a>\u00a0this summer,\u00a0which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity<\/a>. El Nino\u2019s potential influence on storm development could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin. Those conditions include the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms, and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea which creates more energy to fuel storm development. These factors are part of the longer term variability in Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development\u00a0\u2014 known as the high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes\u00a0\u2014 which have been producing more active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.<\/p>\n \u201cWith a changing climate, the data and expertise NOAA provides to emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during and after a hurricane has never been more crucial,\u201d said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. \u201cTo that end, this year we are operationalizing a new hurricane forecast model and extending the tropical cyclone outlook graphic from five to seven days, which will provide emergency managers and communities with more time to prepare for storms.\u201d<\/p>\n This summer, NOAA will implement a series of upgrades and improvements. NOAA will expand the capacity of its operational supercomputing system by 20%. This increase in computing capability will enable NOAA to improve and run more complex forecast models, including significant model upgrades this hurricane season:<\/p>\n Additional upgrades or new tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting include:<\/p>\n NOAA will continue improving new and current observing systems critical in understanding and forecasting hurricanes. Two projects underway this season include:<\/p>\n \u201cAs we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread devastation and upend lives. So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials. Whether you live on the coast or further inland, hurricanes can cause serious impacts to everybody in their path,\u201d said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. \u201cVisit\u00a0ready.gov<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0listo.gov<\/a>\u00a0for readiness resources, and get real time emergency alerts by downloading the FEMA App. Actions taken today can save your life when disaster strikes. The time to prepare is now.\u201d<\/p>\n NOAA\u2019s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA also issues\u00a0seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific<\/a>\u00a0and central Pacific hurricane basins. NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2023 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.<\/p>\n \n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.carilec.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/NOAA-Outlook-300x186.png\")
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