The current El Nino just reached ‘Super’ El Nino status – for only the 6th time since 1950. But forecasts now show El Nino is about to quickly fizzle out, and likely replaced by La Nina by the summer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
There are less than 120 days before the arrival of the 2024\u00a0hurricane<\/a>\u00a0season, but for Mother Nature, the processes that lead to tropical weather season begin well before it\u2019s annual start on June 1, and these signals can provide clues as to how busy the season will be.<\/p>\n Forecasters pay close attention to trade winds and water temperature anomalies to determine the status of the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation index, or what is commonly referred to as the ENSO.<\/p>\n Historically,\u00a0La Ni\u00f1as<\/a>\u00a0have produced busy tropical seasons, while the opposite is known to be true during El Ni\u00f1os – when conditions are typically hostile for cyclones in the Atlantic basin.<\/p>\n In La Ni\u00f1a patterns, water temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are usually warmer than average and upper-level winds, which tend to tear systems apart, are less hostile.<\/p>\n During El Ni\u00f1os, forecasters say there is usually much more wind shear around and water temperatures tend not to be as warm in the Atlantic basin.<\/p>\n Significantly warmer water in the key equatorial belt typically correlates with limited hurricane development.<\/p>\n (Image: FOX Weather)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The current El Ni\u00f1o pattern continues to weaken, and climate models anticipate the world will enter a\u00a0neutral status<\/a>\u00a0over the summer.<\/p>\n A march out of an El Ni\u00f1o into a neutral status would require the continued cooling of water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific.<\/p>\n Once water temperature anomalies reach 0.5 \u00b0C or colder, the El Ni\u00f1o will be considered over, and the world will officially be in neutral status. A neutral ENSO runs from 0.5 \u00b0C to -0.5 \u00b0C and La Ni\u00f1as are christened once levels reach -0.5 \u00b0C or greater.<\/p>\n Agencies such as NOAA and other experts annually warn of a Spring Predictability Barrier, especially during large-scale changes, that can lead to less than accurate model outputs.<\/p>\n Climate model outputs<\/p>\n (Chart: NOAA’s Climate Program Office and Columbia University \/ FOX Weather)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n “If you want to know whether it is going to rain, you are usually better off using a prediction the day before than you are a week out. The same is true in seasonal climate outlooks. However, during the spring, even making an ENSO forecast for the coming summer is pretty difficult,”\u00a0authors of a NOAA climate blog stated.<\/a><\/p>\n Due to the slow nature of change and\u00a0climate<\/a>\u00a0forecast models showing neutral conditions through much of the summer and fall, the 2024 hurricane season will already be well underway by the time atmospheric winds, temperatures and instability levels reach what are considered to be normal for the state.<\/p>\n An average Atlantic basin hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven go on to become hurricanes and three normally reach major hurricane status with winds of at least 115 mph.<\/p>\n Seven of the last eight years have all finished with above-normal activity, including 2018 and 2023, when El Ni\u00f1o patterns were in control in the Pacific.<\/p>\n The 2024 season could be in a similar state to seasons such as 2016, 2010, 2003, 1998 and 1995, when significant El Ni\u00f1o events were on the decline ahead of the next La Ni\u00f1a stage.<\/p>\n These seasons experienced an average of 17 tropical cyclones, nine hurricanes and four majors, which is busier when compared to average.<\/p>\n A busy year does not correlate to high U.S. landfall impacts, but with more cyclone chances comes the possibility that more people could find themselves in a cone of concern.<\/p>\n Last year\u2019s hurricane season was the\u00a0least impactful for the U.S. in nearly a decade<\/a>, so only a small uptick in activity can increase the threat level.<\/p>\n![\"Graphic](\"https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/288\/162\/EL-NINO-EFFECT.png?ve=1&tl=1)
<\/picture><\/div>\nCurrent state of ENSO<\/h2>\n
![\"NOAA](\"https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/288\/162\/model-predictions-of-ens-4.png?ve=1&tl=1)
<\/picture><\/div>\nWhat the neutral status means for the 2024 season<\/h2>\n
![\"Hurricane](\"https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/288\/162\/atl.png?ve=1&tl=1)
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