{"id":88568,"date":"2025-03-14T11:56:22","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T15:56:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/?p=88568"},"modified":"2025-03-14T13:31:21","modified_gmt":"2025-03-14T17:31:21","slug":"la-nina-event-is-expected-to-be-short-lived","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carilec.org\/la-nina-event-is-expected-to-be-short-lived\/","title":{"rendered":"La Ni\u00f1a event is expected to be short-lived"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Press Release<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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06 March 2025<\/div>\n
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The weak La Ni\u00f1a event that emerged in December 2024 is likely to be short-lived, according to the latest World Meteorological Organization (WMO) update.<\/p>\n

Forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction indicate that the current cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to return to normal. \u00a0There is a 60% probability that conditions will shift back to ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Ni\u00f1o nor La Ni\u00f1a) during March-May 2025, increasing to 70 % for April-June 2025.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the probability of El Ni\u00f1o developing is negligible during the forecast period (March to June). However, uncertainty in the long-lead forecasts is higher than usual due to the boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-known challenge in long-term forecasts of El Nino and La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n

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Infographic on ENSO probabilities for March-May 2025<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n

\u201cSeasonal forecasts for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a and the associated impacts on weather and climate patterns globally are an important tool to inform early warnings and early action and are one of a wide suite of services offered by the WMO community to support decision-making,\u201d said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese forecasts translate into millions of dollars worth in economic savings for key sectors like agriculture, energy and transport, and saved thousands of lives over the years by enabling disaster risk preparedness,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

La Ni\u00f1a refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. Typically, La Ni\u00f1a brings climate impacts that are the opposite of El Ni\u00f1o, especially in tropical regions.<\/p>\n

However, the impacts of naturally occurring climate events such as La Nina and El Nino on climate patterns are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and climate, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.<\/p>\n

Thus,\u00a0January 2025 was the warmest January on record<\/a>, despite weak La Ni\u00f1a conditions being present since December 2024, when observed sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific crossed the La Ni\u00f1a threshold.<\/p>\n

While the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of global climate patterns, it is not the only factor shaping the Earth\u2019s climate. To provide a more comprehensive climate outlook, WMO also issues regular\u00a0Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU)<\/a>. These updates \u00a0take into account the influence of key climate variability patterns, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. The updates also monitor the status of North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) and South Tropical Atlantic (STA) Sea Surface Temperature index anomalies, as well as the global and regional anomalies of surface temperature and precipitation and their evolution over the upcoming season.<\/p>\n

With above-normal sea surface temperatures expected to persist across all major oceans\u2014except for the near-equatorial eastern Pacific\u2014the latest GSCU forecasts above-average temperatures over nearly all land areas worldwide.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation in atmospheric science and meteorology.<\/p>\n

WMO monitors weather, climate, and water resources and provides support to its Members in forecasting and disaster mitigation. The organization is committed to advancing scientific knowledge and improving public safety and well-being through its work.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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For further information, please contact:<\/div>\n